Does the current oil price, $147/barrel, is based on fundamentals or a lot on 'What if' scenarios ?

From $136 to $147 in a couple of days, is our current supply and demand affected to cause the sudden spike or is it more based towards to a lot of ';what if'; scenarios - like if war broke out with Iran, and so on ?


Thoughts ?Does the current oil price, $147/barrel, is based on fundamentals or a lot on 'What if' scenarios ?
what if, it's so messed up.





The speculators are who determine the prices. If something happens or threatens to happen, they say oh ';WHAT IF.....'; and then the prices shoot up, because they buy oil, thinking they will make a profit. They then hold onto this oil until they find that it's a good time to sell it (usually when prices go higher)





Next, Big oil looks to the speculators (with a few other influences) to determine how high to price their oil, and then a few weeks later, this price is reflected at the gas station.





We need reform.








I hope this helps you! :-)Does the current oil price, $147/barrel, is based on fundamentals or a lot on 'What if' scenarios ?
It's based on the fact that the oil supply is not what it used to be. It is due to the fact that there is not enough to go around. It is due to the fact that oil discoveries are virtually non existant. It is due to the fact that very soon oil will go into decline and world demand for oil is growing at an exponential rate and it is not sustainable as an energy source. It is also due to the fact that smaller oil fields or oil fields that were once considered uneconomical need to be used today and because oil prices are so high these oil fields have now become usable and the oil from them extractable due to oil being $147 a barrel. One fact that some people seem to be missing a great deal is if you have plenty of easily produceable sweet crude oil in the world, you don't go messing about with the tar sands in Canada and contemplate drilling in the Arctic and ANWR.
It's based on greed, pure and simple. Speculation, supply and demand, unrest in the middle east, hurricane Katrina, the list goes on.


For one of the most vital commodities in the world the people involved in the production seem pretty inept, don't you think?


The price is strictly manipulated by seeing how much they can charge for it and not ';break the bank';.


If gigantic oil reserves were discovered today, and were easily accessible, no way in hell would the price drop in any substantial manner. IT WILL NEVER FALL BELOW $130/barrel regardless of supply and demand, conditions in the middle east, the weather, etc.
There is enough oil in America to last a while if we develope it-which we probably will.





There is more oil in the Bakken Fdormation than there is in Arabia, Iraq, and Iran combined.
its a multitude of things that affect the oil market, but much of the recent trending is solely based on speculation, contrary to what those making the most money off of the prices say.





Oil companies have a ';10%'; profit margin....would you rather make 10% of $147 or 10% of 120? This is why oil companies themselves are not concerned with the price per barrel.





This is extremely over simplified and the pm is not solely related to the cost of oil per barrel, but this is how it works.
I bought millions and millions of barrels of oil when they cost $60--$100 a barrel. I expect to make a kill when I sell. But right now it’s only over $140 a barrel. So here is my difficulty :





I have requested my agents spin the media, like: “Oil future looks high, expecting to be in the range of $200 a barrel soon” But it does not work price up fast enough.





I have paid the mainstream media, the Think Tanks, and the major PR talking heads, to spin China and India (supply and demand) responsible for price hike, to deflect American public anger. But that does not go far enough.





Right now, I am extremely nervous and worried. I urgently need a prey to buy those “paper barrels” on my hording. So I can profit. But where can I find my prey ?





ADD:


Airline industry has requested and demanded Congress stop oil speculation. I have my lobby on Capitol Hill work the Senators and Congressmen around the clock. But I do not how long they can hold.


Airlines urge Congress to curb oil speculation


http://www.boston.com/business/articles/…
I mainly boils down to a bunch a rich investers that are driving down this economy. THe worse the economy gets, the higher the oil is getting because these investers feel that its the only place in the market where they can make money right now. Typically, when the rest of the market is down due to a panic (foreclosures, job layoffs, or not companys not meeting quarterly earings) investers go into a panic and sell off other shares they own (not oil) then a lot of them buy oil because they feel it's the only thing safe. IT SUCKS
According to CNBC the speculators only influence like 3% of the market price, OPEC a small portion, and supply and demand the rest. I have heard that the world does not have enough refining capabilities which is largely what is causing the increase in price. Oil comes out but not enough abiltiy to turn it into gasoline, etc.
Whenever the supply of oil is threatened, prices will go up. Just like if the supply was to increase, the price would go down. It's speculation (investors betting the price will rise when supply is decreased or demand is rising), but the root problem is supply and demand, not speculation.
I think Iran knows exactly what it is doing. Does as much as they can to overprice our lifeline.





Speculators need to be regulated.





Edit: Daniel, I agree to a point. But the investors happen to be indirectly driving up the cost of almost everything. It is our government's duty to protect its citizens from threats.
It is both, really. And no, speculators don't need to be regulated. Our Government has no authority to do that. And rather than give me thumbs down, show me where in the Constitution it says the Gov't can regulate anything, but specifically speculators.
What if...we run out of oil.


What if...Iran blocks the Straight of Hormuz.





*Just to add, we're not running out of oil.


*And if we did go to war with Iran, we don't get any oil from them.
The first reason is that US dollar is plunging, it is a currency without future.Big investors are buying Oil futures as a refuge to the collapse of the green painted paper.
Just one 'what if', and that is, ';what IF, we charge them more...do you think they'll pay?';.... and the other guy; ';heck yeah they'll pay, what else will they do, skateboard to work';!
Yes, and Iran is exploiting that for everything it's worth.
It's a indication of how important oil is.
it rose because of speculation
what if's





its called 'Speculation'