Monday, July 26, 2010

What's the real reason(s) behind the abrupt increase in oil price then drop (a spike) within a short period?

There are a number of reasons for an abrupt increase in oil prices. The most contributing one is the Speculation. This is a rule of economics that when prices of a certain commodity start going up and especially of a commodity like Oil in which many gamblers play on a daily basis, people start thinking in a particular way i.e. people start expecting that the price of a certain commodity will now increase at a very fast rate. Speculators which I would say here gamblers take advantage of this situation and then start taking certain measures in the market to increase the price of that particular commodity for which there already exists inflationary expectations for that commodity. So when price goes up, people don't mind paying up for it up to the certain level. But here the question arises why do people expect the price of a certain commodity to rise? Aren't they sensible enough that they want to pay more? These expectations are build on over the years especially through media marketing like e.g. promoting to use oil with care as there are now less reserves left. Speculation is not only tool with which Gamblers play, they also influence the supply side of the commodity.





Now as I said there is a certain level up to which people pay for a certain commodity no matter how essential it has become in today's world. The global financial recession starting from August 2008 proved to be blessing at least in terms of one aspect that it became the reason for oil prices to go down. As people are left with not enough money to afford big cars and to buy new cars. So the demand for oil has gone down and as the law of demand suggests that as demand goes down, so does the price.What's the real reason(s) behind the abrupt increase in oil price then drop (a spike) within a short period?
Nothing goes straight down. Speculators cause it to spike.

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