Monday, August 23, 2010

Why has the price of oil declined recently so dramatically?

There were lots of (supposed) reasons why the price of oil recently rose to record levels -- hurricane season approaching, instability in the Middle East, disruptions with the Alaskan supply, etc, etc.





However, in the recent days, the price of oil has suddenly dropped 25%-30%. What happened to generate that large price change? What are the explainable causes?Why has the price of oil declined recently so dramatically?
Well you kind of have the idea right in front of you:





Hurricane season - was extremely mild





Instability in the Middle East - has calmed down exceptionally from the summer





Alaskan Supply - has begun to recover quicker than expected





Plus...





-Building crude supplies week after week (due, in part, to declining demand)


-Speculators getting out of the market (this has been seen especially in Nat Gas)


-Oil prices tend to decline in the fall (historically) around 20% nearly every year...this year it just happened about 6-7 weeks earlier than expectedWhy has the price of oil declined recently so dramatically?
Supply exceeds demand...and instead of the Saudis cutting back production, they are keeping it at a high level in order to depress the price. Why? Because it is important for the Saudis to prop up the Republicans prior to the election. Also, to deprive Iran of the extra revenues is a bonus for the Saudis.
Election time: Bush needed to increase his approval rating to help boost the Republican Party

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